Bitcoin closes the week below psychological $10,000 resistance following halving event (Update: 16 May 2020)

Bitcoin closes the week below psychological $10,000 resistance following halving event (Update: 16 May 2020)

This past week saw selling pressure returning as the psychological $10,000 price level approached again, Bitcoin continues to trade in its convergence triangle pattern formation and fast approaching the resistance area, Bitcoin continues to build momentum to test these converging resistance areas around $10,500 and complete a V-Bottom pattern.

Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Event Took Place

The much anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) halving event occurred this past week on Monday evening, 11 May 2020. This was the third halving event in its history. The Bitcoin halving is hard coded to happen automatically every 4 years and this means with every subsequent block, miners now earn half the reward for verifying transactions on the block chain. The reward cut occurred a day sooner then most expected. Bitcoin miners now get 6.25 BTC per block rather than the 12.5 BTC they acquired before the halving.

bitcoin-btc-halving-amounts-2009-2012-2016-2020-list

How did Bitcoin (BTC) perform during the previous two halving events

  • 2012 Halving: Bitcoin’s price rose by 8,000%.
  • 2016 Halving: 18 months after the 2016 halving, it increased by 2,000%.
bitcoins-price-action-during-the-first-and-second-btc-halfving-events-price-action-chart-bullish-bulls
Generally, the halving event is extremely bullish for the Bitcoin price. However, this time could be different because of the current global uncertainty caused by The Coronavirus / COVID-19 pandemic.
 
We saw high correlation in price activity in Bitcoin and SPX when the February and March 2020 crash occurred while everyone ran to safety in the Dollar currency. 
 
We expect traders to remain cautious as SPX continues to trade in a possible wave topping out sideways pattern.

Bitcoin and SPX Correlation and Decoupling May 2020

Bitcoin has been trading and following the US stock market movements very closely up until the last few weeks, where we have now started to see some decoupling between the 2 assets.
 
The SPX has gotten stuck at the 61% Fibonacci Retracement levels and has become range-bound for the last 5 weeks with barely any gains in this period after a massive bottoming reversal from the February and March 2020 crash, in the same time Bitcoin has continued to gain as the halving event grew closer and has made around a 55% gain in the same comparison 5 week period.

Weekly Market Recap for the week of 11 May 2020

Looking at the longer term monthly Bitcoin charts and a zoomed in view.

Bitcoin continues to trade in its convergence triangle pattern formation and fast approaching the resistance areas.

Bitcoin continues to build momentum to test these converging resistance areas around $10,500 and complete a V-Bottom pattern.

bitcoin-10000-weekly-update-15-may-2020-spx-500-united-states-stock-market-shares

We wait to see how the weekly candle closes.

This past week saw selling pressure returning as the psychological $10,000 price level approached again.

It becomes important now for Bitcoin to hold Friday, 15th May 2020, lows of around $9,100.

A weekly close above this area should bring in some new fresh buyers to target and test that 10k level again. 

A break above $10,000 then puts the previous highs into play at $10,500 level.

The $10,500  area is double resistance with the long term convergence triangle resistance trendline from the $20,000 area fast approaching. This would also complete a V-Bottom pattern from the March 2020 crash lows.

It won’t be easy breaking out this level and we could expect to see some profit taking, especially considering that we have already seen a 160% price gain since March 2020 lows.

Should Bitcoin get above $10,000 this should provide a good buying opportunity for some altcoins to finally have some good gains.

Ethereum ETH seems to be trying to create a support at $200 area, we notice that a move to $255 in the next few weeks could be very possible as long as Bitcoin hovers around the $10,000 to $10,500 area before any profit taking or sell off occurs. (A nice 25%+ gain at least!).

The US markets ended almost flat for the week after we saw an SPX sell-off on Thursday morning, markets were then saved and bought back up violently throughout the rest of Thursday (up 3.5% from Thursday’s low of the day). This was despite a further 3 million people who had filed for jobless claim benefits this past week, taking the total unemployed Americans to a staggering 36.5 Million.

Friday’s trading ended range bound. We now sit mid-way in this channel between 2750 and 2950 where bulls and bears will continue to fight for the next price direction next week.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *